Global Warming Theories

Introduction

            Climate change is not a new phenomenon in the present world that led to significant impacts on the ecosystem. Global warming is a form of climate change that involves the gradual increase in the average temperatures of the Earth’s atmosphere as well as the oceans. The changes that occur appear to change the climate of the Earth permanently. A great debate circulates among different groups of people and also in the media about the reality of global warming. However, the scientists who study climatic changes claim that their analysis of the data collected reveals that the Earth is continuously experiencing climatic change. The effects of global warming are evident on the planet due to the rise of the average temperatures. The basic understanding of global warming dwells from the problem of increased carbon dioxide in the atmosphere that acts as a blanket and traps heat that warms the planet. The world’s population continues to increase that calls for the need to create more space for habitation. As such, people cut down and burn forests to create more space and also burn fossil fuels like coal, oil, and natural gas. The result is accumulation and overloading of the atmosphere with carbon dioxide. There are many theories that seek to explain climatic change and make predictions. The research paper focuses on the anthropogenic global warming theory and the Ocean Currents theory in climatic change.

The main argument

            The anthropogenic Global warming theory (AGW) has the hypothesis that man-made activities cause greenhouse gases that cause climate change. Thus, humans’ beings bear the greatest responsibility for the warming trend due to the burning of fossil fuels, and other activities (Bast, 2010). The examination of the polar ice cores by scientists reveal that human activity has a great significance in increasing the proportion of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The rate of the changes is significant, alarming, and is becoming unsustainable in the long term.

            On the other hand, the Ocean currents theory on global warming has a different explanation of the phenomenon. The theory contends that global temperature variations over the past century are as a result of slowing down of the Ocean’s Thermohaline Circulation (Bast, 2010). For a long time, the oceans have been the main control of the planet’s climate. However, many discussions of climate change did not consider oceans because little is known about them. The masses of water have a likelihood of varying over a geological timescale. However, research shows that the ocean current patterns might change in the future. The fear is that global warming might be the cause of the switching of ocean water circulation thereby posing a great challenge. The oceans are warming and becoming acidic as the prediction of the greenhouse gas theory. The major world disasters and anomalies like El Nino, La Nina, and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation have been of great significance in their effects on the Earth’s atmosphere. However, it is challenging to understand the causes of the effects.           

Views of the proponents

            The Anthropogenic climate change theory explains that the post-industrial rise in the greenhouse gases is not a result of the natural mechanisms. It is anthropogenic in nature, and the significant increase in the greenhouse gases are a result of human activity. The most significant gases are carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide. The gases are the causes of anthropogenic climate change, and their concentrations have been the highest for over 650,000 years. The mechanism of the theory revolves around the circulation of the greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The solar rays heat the earth and heat the surface. The surface of the earth emits infrared radiation back to space thereby causing a cooling effect on the planet. The greenhouse gases available in the troposphere trap some of the infrared rays that reflect heat back to the surface. Thus, according to the anthropogenic global warming theory, the increased carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere continue to rise the global temperatures (Gorisch, 2014).

            According to the theory, the carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere increased from 280 parts per million (ppm) in 1750 to 379 parts per million (ppm) in 2005. The estimates show that two-thirds of the anthropogenic climate change in the carbon dioxide emissions arise from the fossil fuel burning and a third from land use activities. An approximate of 45% of the carbon dioxide has been in the atmosphere and 30 % taken up by oceans and the rest of trees and plants. Another portion of the gases remains in the atmosphere for many years thereby causing the effect. The carbon emissions continue to increase in the recent decades due to fossil fuel use and emissions from the land use. The figures showing some emissions from carbon are evident of the likelihood of increased global warming (Weart, 2010).

            According to the ocean currents theory on climatic change, the changes in the oceans circulation appear to advance the past climatic swings during the ice ages, and the internal oscillations of the ocean circulation may be the major cause of the climatic changes. The understanding of the stability and the changes of the ocean circulation has been due to modeling and creation of new data on the past climatic changes.

            The ocean currents have a significant impact on the climate. The oceans cover 71 % of the Earth and absorb about twice of the sun’s radiation absorbed by the atmosphere or the earth’s surface. Thus, it is a crucial component of the climatic system. The oceans absorb much of the heat from the sun, but unlike the atmosphere they are confined by the land masses such that the heat transport mechanism is localized to particular regions.

            There are computer models that give simulations of the ocean circulations and help to examine the impacts of the ocean currents on climate. The Atlantic conveyor belt has two stable climatic states, one with (or without) the Atlantic conveyor belt. The models help to understand the different climatic change. It makes it easy to compare what the world would look like without the ocean circulation that causes warming to Europe.

            The role of the ocean in climatic change requires an insight of the dynamics of ocean circulation changes. The computer simulations led to significant advances in the knowledge of the circulation dynamics in the recent past. Two mechanisms involved in ocean currents are responsible for the formation of non-linear transitions in the Atlantic Ocean circulation which involve the “fast” and the “slow” mechanisms. There are two stable states under the present climatic conditions. The levels of salinity in the deep water require being high enough to form the thermohaline circulation to bring salty water from the South. The system operates as a self-maintaining mechanism. Cooling and the input of the fresh rainwater, snow, and melting ice balance in the system (Huang, 2010).

            The circulation changes occur on the slow time scale spanning over one to two centuries, hence cannot be the trigger for the recent glacial occurrences. Thus, the effects of the regional temperatures are moderate in the models, and the reduced heat transport falls in the strong greenhouse warming that is cancelled by the system. The impacts of the circulation changes on the marine ecosystems are unexplored, and the mat has significant revelations about ocean currents and climatic change. A weakened circulation reduces the ability to absorb carbon dioxide that makes climate system less dependent on human emissions.   

            A vast and powerful warm current called the Gulf Stream transports water that surpasses all the world’s rivers combined, and it’s only a part of the larger regional ocean conveyor system (thermohaline circulations). The key aspect of the system occurs in the North Atlantic ocean where the warm Gulf Stream flows northward into the cooler waters and then splits into the North Atlantic current. The stream proceeds to the northern latitudes to the colder and salty water locations due to its high density after which it travels southward in the deep waters. The circulation is a major influence on the climate change since it transports the warm water northward that helps to warm Europe’s climate. It also sends cold water to the tropics (Pittock, Frakes, Jenssen, Peterson & Zillman, 2010).                                    

Views of the opponents

            For the anthropogenic global warming theory to hold, the observed rate of temperature increase requires to be higher in the troposphere region than at the surface of the earth. The rate of temperature increase would be the most noticeable in the tropics since it is the surface that radiates the most heat. However, the observations from the weather balloons show that to be unrealistic. The model climatic prediction of global warming in the troposphere is different from the actual balloon measurements that show no warming in the mid troposphere at the Equator. Hence, the models might be wrong.

            The computer models predict that most of the warming occurs at the mid-troposphere at the Equator, which is not the case in the actual measurements by the weather balloon. There are no hot spots in the troposphere to show increased warming of the atmosphere. Thus, the anthropogenic global warming theory is not borne out of evidence but generalizations of the phenomena. The theory is not subject to proper scientific methods and hence fails to substantiate the basic premises making it baseless. There lacks convincing scientific evidence that human release of carbons dioxide, methane, and other greenhouse gases cause, or will lead to significant heating of the earth’s atmosphere thereby disrupting the earth’s climate.   

            The anthropogenic global warming theory does not have reliable confirmation by observations. The theory gives predictions that attempt to explain climatic change but lacks scientific evidence to support it. It appears that it predicts all the possible observations in climatic change phenomena and end up predicting nothing scientific at all (Cook, Nuccitelli, et. a.l, 2013). 

            The opponents of the global warming theory postulate that water vapor and the clouds have the ability to neutralize the warming effect of the Carbon dioxide emissions. Climate change cannot be as a result of single factors but a combination of both the natural and the external forces. They can be human or non-human like changes in the Earth’s orbit around the sun, solar activity, and the volcanic emissions. The scientists associate global warming with the greenhouse effect, thought there lacks adequate data to support it.

            The opponents of global warming claim that heat is the main drive for weather and hence, having a stable weather is far from reality.  The weather can either be on both extremes of ups and downs, and the global climate is expected to change by the weather extremes.

            The debate about global warming continues to elucidate sharp reaction from different researchers. Some hold on the greenhouse effect and others question the possibility of human activities causing a climate change that affects a system of the atmosphere.

Geographical areas that manifest the theories

            The occurrences like the El Nino in the Pacific Ocean are a demonstration of how changes in the ocean currents can affect the climatic conditions in the global perspective. The event leads to severe drought conditions, and catastrophic forest and bush fires. It also causes an increase in the air pollution levels and floods in the some countries. Ocean currents are also a major cause of climatic changes in the North Atlantic. The region receives circulations that link the Antarctic with the Arctic commonly known as thermohaline circulation. The term describes the driving forces; temperature and salinity of the sea water that determine the differences in the water density. It acts as a conveyor belt in which an upper branch packed with heat moves North, delivers the heat to the atmosphere and returns South about 3 km. Below the sea surface as the North Atlantic Deep Water. The magnitude of heat transported to the northern North Atlantic is high measuring 1 PW equivalent to a million power stations. The conditions are evident in the comparison of places in Europe having some locations with similar latitudes on the North American continent. Some satellite images show how the warm currents keep most of the Greenland-Norwegian Sea free of ice in winter in spite of the other parts of the Arctic Ocean having low temperatures.

            Climate change manifests itself in the form of rising sea levels, melting sea ice and glaciers, altering precipitation patterns, increasing frequency and severity of the storms, and the increase in ocean acidification. In North East America, the effects of global warming due to carbon emissions are evident in the annual temperature increase, bird population shifts, reduced snowpack, early ice breakup, increase in the plant frost damage, an increase in the heat-related illnesses, and no predictive timing of the seasons. Many coastal towns have also experienced increased sea water levels that pose a danger to the adjacent habitants. Many parts of Sub-Saharan Africa experience reduced snow packs as a manifestation of global warming (Gillett, Arora, Zickfeld, Marshall & Merryfield, 2011).    

Solutions to global warming from the theories

            Many scientists and researchers have had much interest in the anthropogetic global warming theory that holds that human activities contribute to the emission of the greenhouse gases leading global warming. The solution to global warming is reducing the emission of the green house gases to the atmosphere (Biello, 2007). Burning fossil fuels in the form of natural gas, coal, oil, and gasoline increase the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Thus, the reduction of the demand for fossil fuels helps to reduce global warning. The strategies involved include reducing, reusing, and recycling. The human population ought to buy the items with minimal packaging that reduces wastage and also recycling some the waste that contains carbon dioxide. Another strategy is encouraging less driving and driving smart to reduce the emissions. Most of the automobiles emit carbon from the combustion of the fuel that powers the engine. The use of energy efficient products can help to limit the carbon emissions. The home appliances come in diverse energy-efficient models that consume less energy compared with the previous versions.

            The human population requires stopping cutting down trees since an approximate of 33 million acres of forests are cut annually. The main cause is timber harvesting in the tropics that contribute to significant emissions of carbon to the atmosphere. The use of improved agricultural practices and forest management helps to balance the amount of wood taken out and the growing trees. The increased human population is also a major concern since the numbers continue to rise despite the planet having a fixed size. According to the U.N Environmental Program, the continued increase in the world’s population seems unsustainable. A reduced birth rate in the developed and developing countries helps to reduce the population explosion since it is unclear about the number of people that the planet can comfortably sustain. The clear indications are the premise that a high population means increased green house emissions (Lomborg, 2010).

            The anthropogenic global warming theory suggests that humans have the greatest responsibility of addressing global warming since they are the cause. The best strategies should target the efforts of reducing heat-trapping gas emissions. 

            Thermohaline circulation is a global ocean circulation pattern that distributes water and heat vertically and horizontally across the globe. The warm salty water that flows across the oceans due to the circulation results to a warming effect on some parts of the world (Huang, 2010). However, thermohaline circulation can be halted due to its effect on global warming. The thermohaline circulation occurs due to the sinking of the cold and saline water at high latitudes. The fresh water flowing into the Atlantic Ocean from rainfall or ice can make the ocean water less salty and less dense. Thus, the change of density makes it unable to sink thereby shutting down the global thermohaline circulation.

            Some of the events that occur tend to force the flow of fresh water into the North Atlantic. It reduces the saltiness of the ocean water thereby no sinking of salty water that halts thermohaline circulation. Thus, an increase in the influx of the fresh water to the oceans helps to reduce the saltiness and the density thereby lowering the likelihood of thermohaline circulation. It eliminates the possibility of experiencing abrupt climate changes that enhance global warming. The climatic effect of the thermohaline circulation is subject to debate, but it is evident that it leads to the transport of heat. Global warming and thermohaline circulation have relationships on the premise that it leads to the warming of the surface thereby reducing the density of the high-latitude surface waters.      

Conclusion

            Global warming is a major occurrence all over the world and affects all the living creatures. The cause of global warming has many theoretical explanations that have varying approaches. The evidence of global warming is present all over the world though some claim that its existence is controversial. The discussion shows that each of the theories on global warming has supportive evidence and mechanisms describing its occurrence. The common of all the theories is the anthropogenic global warming theory that dwells on the premise that carbon emission leads to green house effect that cause global warming. Also provided is the ocean currents theory that explains the effect of the thermohaline circulation in increasing the world’s temperatures through the mixing of warm and cold ocean waters due to density differences.

References

 Bast J. (2010) The Seven Theories of Climate Change; Heartland Institute 

Biello D. (2007) Solutions for Climatic Change: Scientific American Journal on the Future of        Climate Change

 Collins, M., An, S. I., Cai, W., Ganachaud, A., Guilyardi, E., Jin, F. F., & Wittenberg, A.            (2010). The impact of global warming on the tropical Pacific Ocean and El Niño. Nature          Geoscience, 3(6), 391-397.

Cook, J., Nuccitelli, D., Green, S. A., Richardson, M., Winkler, B., Painting, R., ... & Skuce, A.   (2013). Quantifying the consensus on anthropogenic global warming in the scientific          literature. Environmental Research Letters, 8(2), 024024

Gillett, N. P., Arora, V. K., Zickfeld, K., Marshall, S. J., & Merryfield, W. J. (2011). Ongoing      climate change following a complete cessation of carbon dioxide emissions: Nature            Geoscience, 4(2), 83-87.

Gorisch B. (2014) Anthropogenic Global Warming and the Scientific Method; American Thinker

Huang, R. X. (2010). Ocean circulation: wind-driven and thermohaline processes. Cambridge      University Press.

Lomborg, B. (Ed.). (2010). Smart solutions to climate change: Comparing costs and benefits.        Cambridge University Press.

Pittock, A. B., Frakes, L. A., Jenssen, D., Peterson, J. A., & Zillman, J. W. (2010). Climatic          change and variability: a southern perspective. Cambridge University Press.

Weart, S. R. (2010). The idea of anthropogenic global climate changes in the 20th century. Wiley             Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, 1(1), 67-81.

Sherry Roberts is the author of this paper. A senior editor at MeldaResearch.Com in cheap term papers if you need a similar paper you can place your order from top research paper writing companies.